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BMAT 2012 · Question 34 · Logic

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Are Britain's roads getting safer? By Lucy Wilkins, BBC News The first recorded road death in a motor accident in Britain was in London over 100 years ago. More than a century on, roads may be busier than ever - but are they any safer? On 17 August, 1896, a South London housewife entered the history books by being run over. Bridget Driscoll, 44, became the first person recorded to have died in a motor accident in Britain. The 20-year-old driver was a car company worker, and there were reports he had adjusted the engine to increase its maximum speed to 8mph. Ever since that first death - and the first recorded death of a driver 18 months later - the number of vehicles on the roads has multiplied. Increasing number of vehicles According to the Department for Transport (DfT), in 1930 there were only 2.3 million motor vehicles in Great Britain, but more than 7,000 people were killed in road accidents. In contrast nowadays there are more vehicles but fewer deaths - there are 27 million vehicles and 3,180 people were killed in the 12 months to March this year, provisional results show. The DfT is meeting its 10-year safety target of cutting the number of road accident deaths and injuries to 40% of the 1994-98 average - 319,928 casualties. Five years into the policy, the statistics show casualties are 33% below the earlier average. In actual numbers, 268,900 people were either injured or killed in the 12 months to this March. But are Britain's roads really becoming safer? The statistics paint a confusing picture Many road accidents, where there are slight injuries or even more severe ones, bypass police records. This could be because some of the people involved in accidents do not want to tell the police because they are uninsured, unlicensed, or drunk, says head of road safety at the AA Motoring Trust, Andrew Howard. But even if injuries are reported, it does not mean the police will record them. The severity of the injury will also be under-estimated, research in the 1990s suggested. "The combined effect of under-reporting, under-recording and misclassification suggests that there may be 2.76 times as many killed or seriously injured casualties than are recorded in the national casualty figures and 1.70 times as many slight casualties," the DfT says. In June, three Oxford University researchers queried the figures after comparing them to hospital admissions from road accidents. The DfT statistics, from the police and including all hospital admissions, showed a fall from 85.9 people killed or seriously injured per 100,000 in 1996 to 59.4 per 100,000 in 2004. However, hospital admissions were almost unchanged at 90 per 100,000 in 1996 and 91.1 in 2004. They said the disparity was probably due to under- reporting and/or fewer minor injuries. Statistical 'utopia' Paul Smith, from Safe Speed, said: "For every 100 accidents reported, there's 180 that aren't reported." Cars are safer, paramedics better trained, there are more air ambulances and roads have improved, said Mr Smith. The only factor that has not changed is drivers who "are getting worse" in his opinion. He urged the department to focus on educating drivers about their responsibilities, rather than just getting them to drive slower. But Mr Howard, from the AA Motoring Trust, is encouraged by the statistics: "My view, and I would say this is true of most of those involved in road safety, is that the statistics do show the roads are getting safer."

The second section refers to a DfT 10 year target. To the nearest 1000, what is the DfT's target?